akurganow/howp
Turn what you follow into measurable questions, bind them to Polymarket and Manifold markets, and write a forecast from their probabilities and the agent's judgement.
Forecast the questions a person follows from prediction markets and your own judgement. Bind each measurable question to a Polymarket or Manifold market. Record the market probabilities with the hp binary, and write the forecast. Use when the user asks to forecast something they follow, or asks what the markets say about it. Also use when they want to set up or refresh a forecast workspace. Also use to bind a question to a market, collect market probabilities, explain a sharp move or write the weekly digest. Also use to forecast an event from recorded results, the gated market and evidence, and to score that forecast after the outcome. hp runs only on the platforms the package's binaries.json names; read that file before running it.
Interview a person about what they follow and write the measurable questions their forecast is built on. Ask one question at a time, turn each interest into dated, checkable questions, and write interests.yaml and questions/<interest>.yaml once the user approves them. Use when the user wants to choose what to track or forecast, or to turn an interest into questions. Also use when they want to add or change an interest or a question, or reword a question no market covers. Also use to start a forecast workspace from nothing.