judgment-calibration-wiki
Retrieve judgment calibration wiki concepts. Use when the question is about judgment calibration: The dual-process frame and bias mechanism; Statistical-reasoning failure modes; The overconfidence family; Calibration and scoring; Structured estimation method; Belief updating as its own skill; Debiasing technique and deliberate practice; Team and aggregation epistemics for judgment; Choice under uncertainty and its distortion. Scan concepts.json in this skill folder. Read only matching notes. Follow basename links hop by hop. Do not load every note. Do not answer from fleeting/ notes.
Pinned to revision 846c7b7891a5, so it is the text this page describes rather than whatever the author pushed since.
Files
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/SKILL.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/adjust-and-anchor-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/adversarial-collaboration-for-forecasts.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/affect-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/allais-paradox.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/anchoring-as-priming.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/anchoring-effect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/associative-coherence-and-activation.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/automatic-causal-storytelling.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/availability-cascade.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/availability-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/base-rate-neglect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/bayesian-updating-with-base-rates.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/belief-perseverance-and-identity-protective-cognition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/bernoullis-error.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/black-swan-forecast-limits.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/brier-score.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/calibration-vs-resolution.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/cargo-cult-science-and-doubt.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/categorical-norms-and-plausible-ranges.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/causal-vs-statistical-base-rates.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/choice-from-experience-vs-description.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/cognitive-ease.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/cognitive-pupillometry-and-mental-effort.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/competition-neglect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/concepts.json
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/confirmation-bias-and-system-1-gullibility.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/conjunction-fallacy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/denominator-neglect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/dilution-effect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/dragonfly-eye-perspective-aggregation.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/effort-narrows-attention.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/ego-depletion-and-mental-effort-budget.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/endowment-effect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/executive-control-and-task-sets.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/extremizing-algorithm.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/facial-competence-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/feedback-quality-and-skill-acquisition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/fermi-decomposition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/focusing-illusion.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/forecast-accuracy-accountability.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/forecast-aggregation-hierarchy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/forecast-postmortem.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/forecastability-triage.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/fourfold-pattern-of-risk-attitudes.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/framing-effects.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/frequency-format-framing.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/global-impressions-vs-explicit-gambles.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/goals-as-reference-points.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/granular-bayesian-updating.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/groupthink-in-forecasting-teams.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/habituated-system-2.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/halo-effect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/hedgehogs-vs-foxes.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/heuristics-and-biases-vocabulary.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/human-machine-forecasting-hybrid.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/illusion-of-validity-and-skill.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/independent-judgments-before-discussion.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/inside-view-vs-outside-view.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/intuition-as-recognition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/intuition-without-reliability-signal.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/kto-kogo-and-forecast-adoption-obstacles.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/law-of-least-effort.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/law-of-small-numbers.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/lazy-system-2-and-rationality.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/less-is-more-pattern.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/loss-aversion-and-reference-points.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/meehl-clinical-vs-statistical-prediction.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/mental-accounting.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/moses-illusion.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/mpg-illusion.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/narrative-fallacy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/negativity-dominance.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/norm-theory-and-surprise.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/optimistic-bias.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/optimistic-skeptic-stance.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/outcome-bias-and-hindsight.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/overestimation-of-unlikely-events.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/perpetual-beta.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/planning-fallacy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/possibility-and-certainty-effects.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/precision-questioning.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/premortem-technique.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/probabilistic-forecast-granularity.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/probability-neglect.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/process-skill-decoupling.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/product-build-outcome-base-rates.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/prospect-theory-decision-weights.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/prospect-theory-disappointment-limit.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/prototype-vs-sum-representation.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/question-clustering-for-big-questions.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/reference-class-forecasting.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/regression-corrected-intuitive-prediction.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/regression-to-the-mean.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/regret-and-action-inaction-asymmetry.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/representativeness-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/responsibility-aversion-beyond-loss-aversion.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/risk-policies-broad-framing.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/scope-sensitivity.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/sherman-kent-probability-language.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/simple-models-beating-expert-judgment.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/single-vs-joint-evaluation.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/situational-bias-recognition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/skill-vs-luck-diagnosis.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/substitution-heuristic.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/sunk-cost-fallacy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/superforecaster-composite-profile.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/superquestioner-vs-superforecaster.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/superteam-forecasting-dynamics.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/system-1-and-system-2.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/three-setting-probability-dial.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/trait-by-trait-scoring.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/two-conditions-for-trustworthy-expert-intuition.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/vivid-outcomes-reduce-probability-sensitivity.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/wicked-and-low-validity-environments.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/wisdom-of-crowds-in-forecasting.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/wrong-side-of-maybe-fallacy.md
- skills/judgment-calibration-wiki/wysiati.md
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