prediction-interval-reporting

Give an honest range around a single prediction or forecast. Always use this skill when someone asks for an interval, band or range around one predicted value, such as the likely price of this house, this customer's spend or next month's demand for one product; how much error to expect on an individual forecast; the difference between a confidence interval and a prediction interval; or whether a stated 95 percent range really covers 95 percent of outcomes, even when a point estimate seems enough. Also use it for intervals from regression, residual-quantile and conformal methods, coverage checks on held-out data, and why ranges widen away from typical inputs. Not for judging average error metrics such as MAE or RMSE, not for simulating a plan with several uncertain inputs, and not for estimating an average or rate from a sample.