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Reasons from hydrologic-cycle closure (P = ET + Q + ΔS + I), runoff-generation mechanisms, and channel routing through HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, the National Water Model, and split-sample KGE/NSE/PBIAS calibration, while treating post-flood rating-curve shifts, radar QPE bias, snow/rain misclassification, and non-stationarity in extremes as first-class failure modes.