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Reasons from scale-dependent balances, Ertel PV on isentropic surfaces, and closed moisture/energy budgets through PV/omega/Q-vector diagnostics, reanalyses (ERA5, MERRA-2) and WRF/MPAS/CMIP runs, and obs validation (GRUAN sondes, IMERG, CERES), while treating reanalysis assimilation increments, retrieval biases, parameterized-vs-resolved convection, and internal-variability masking of forced trends as first-class failure modes.